WP:4 – Cases for multi-model validation (TNO)
The cases tackle urgent problems: National Grid Planning, RES plans, and Municipal Transit Visions for heat.
All three relate to complex socio-technical systems, with a multitude of interacting technical systems, complicated laws, and regulations, and a multitude of conflicting needs and interests in a highly uncertain environment.
In any case, policymakers must act quickly, and must not do the wrong thing. Multi-models developed within these cases contribute directly to the decision maker’s ability to make better decisions, taking into account a much wider palette of aspects of the integrated energy system than has been possible until now.
Because we work in Agile, models over three iterations will always follow the changing questions of policymakers, and directly support them in making strategic choices.
There are 3 case-specific results which are discussed further below.
The interaction between the different levels of the cases is important for grid managers and this will be taken into account in the multi-model infrastructure.
In these cases, the decision-making process supported by model results, as developed in this project, and the added value of multi-models will be demonstrated.
Results
Integrated Infrastructure Outlook 2030-2050 national grids (II3050)
Unlike the other two cases that focus on a Minimum Viable Product, this one will focus on delivering a proof of principle.
Proof of principle in this context means that the basic functionality of the multi-model is demonstrated, without going deeper into the substantive aspects of the case.
wp:4:r:10 II3050 validation case:
Using participatory modeling processes, the specific model demand and KPIs, precise system delineation, and the specification of model interactions will be determined.
Based on this, a multi-model is jointly implemented that can explore the (im)possibilities of different investment strategies and resulting transmission network topologies, to support the very diverse types of transition paths up to 2050.
In this multi-model, models of the transmission network models will be linked to models of relevant distribution networks. These technical sub-models are then linked to models of investment behavior and models of relevant policy and institutional rules to which they are subject.
In addition to these models, a scenario space is created in which a very large number of plausible transition scenarios can be expressed on technical, economic, social, and geopolitical dimensions.
Using the Deep Uncertainty and Exploratory Model Analysis approach, this scenario space will be explored to identify robust investment plans.
Success Indicators:
The validation of a proof-of-principle multi-model in an II3050 problem and demonstration of the added value of the multi-model framework compared to single models. proof-of-principle multi-model in an II3050 problem and demonstration of the added value of the multi-model framework compared to single models.
Benefits:
The result is achieved by applying all elements from the project. Designed social processes are applied to both model development and integrated decision making, and methods for uncertainty propagation, scaling, and operating principle coupling are demonstrated.
Parties such as national governments, investors in energy, energy producers, and network operators (both transmission and distribution) all benefit primarily from the results, because it gives them insight into the consequences of their investment decisions on the capacity of the energy infrastructure.to support energy transition. This result also provides insight into dynamic interactions between different networks over time.
Finally, the created scenario space is the basis for a broadly supported national transition scenario space, which all cases can use.
Results
Meso case: Regional Energy Strategies (RES)
Regional Energy Strategies (RES)
This case focuses on a minimum viable product multi-model for integrated decision making on a mesoscale: Regional Energy Strategies (RES).
wp:4:r:11 RES validation case
One or two RES (decision-making) issues will be identified for which stakeholders will be approached.
The issues relate to choices about sustainable energy generation (eg location alternatives) or alternatives for sustainable heat supply (eg heat networks with residual heat from industry or geothermal energy) and will be further defined by the stakeholders involved (including the province, and local network operator). It will also be determined which models will be used in the analyses.
Using participatory modeling processes, the specific model demand and KPIs, precise system delineation, and the specification of model interactions will be determined.
Based on this, a multi-model is jointly implemented in a participatory decision-making process. With the multi-model, the consequences of the options are mapped out, including those for the regional and national energy infrastructure.
Based on this, a multi-model is jointly implemented in a participatory decision-making process. With the multi-model, the consequences of the options are mapped out, including those for the regional and national energy infrastructure.
By comparing the use of results from multi-model analysis in the decision-making process with results from separate models, the added value of the multi-model approach in the decision-making process will be demonstrated.
Success Indicators:
The validation of a minimum viable product multi-model in a RES problem and demonstration of the added value of the multi-model framework compared to single models.
Benefits:
Stakeholders involved in decision-making regarding RES (eg province, municipality, local grid operator, parties representing the interests of citizens and companies, etc.) and organizations that provide advisory services (eg consultants and energy model providers) all benefit from the demonstration and delivery of this multi-model.
The already existing models and datasets do not change hands. All newly developed components and collected data are in the public domain, and the results will be further made available on publicly accessible code version control platforms and the Multi-model.nl website.
Results
Micro case: Municipal Heat Transition Vision
Municipal Heat Transition Vision
This case focuses on a minimum viable product multi-model for integrated decision-making on a micro-scale: municipal heat vision and local sustainable energy production.
wp:4:r:12 TVW validation case
One or two (decision-making) issues in the area of municipal Transition Vision Heat (TVW) and/or sustainable energy supply Business Park will be identified for which stakeholders/stakeholders will be approached.
The issues will relate to choices regarding the implementation of a sustainable heat supply for the built environment (e.g. heat network, electricity network and heat pumps, sustainable gas network, etc.) or choices regarding energy supply to sustainable industrial estate (e.g. sustainable electricity production or sustainable heat supply) stakeholders involved (including the municipality, local network operator, housing corporation, property managers, park manager, business park, etc.) are defined in more detail.
In both cases, it will be determined which models will be used in the analyses. Using participatory modeling processes, the specific model demand and KPIs, precise system delineation, and the specification of model interactions will be determined. Based on this, a multi-model is jointly implemented in a participatory decision-making process. With the multi-model, the consequences of the choice alternatives and investment decisions are visualized, including those for the local and regional energy infrastructure. Using results from multi-model analysis in the decision-making process to compare with results from separate models will demonstrate the added value of the multi-model approach.
Success Indicators:
The validation of a minimum viable product multi-model in a municipal energy issue and demonstration of the added value of the multi-model framework compared to single models.
Benefits:
Stakeholders involved in decision-making regarding the TVW and sustainable business park (eg municipality, energy network companies, interest representatives of citizens and companies, etc.) as well as organizations that provide advisory services (eg consultants and providers of energy models) all benefit from the demonstration and delivery of this multi-model.
The already existing models and datasets do not change hands. All newly developed components and collected data are in the public domain, and the results will be further made available on publicly accessible code version control platforms and the Multi-model.nl website.
Activities
Co-creation design validation case – TU Delft, TNO, Alliander, DNVGL, Gasunie, Kalavasta, Quintel, Quomare, Stedin, Leiden University
For each case, relevant parties are identified and invited to participate in the participatory modeling process. In preparation for this process, participating parties are interviewed about their qualitative vision of the process.
Developing a case – TU Delft, TNO, Alliander, DNVGL, Gasunie, Kalavasta, Quintel, Quomare, Stedin, Leiden University
The issue to be investigated is further specified in a workshop for each case. It is determined with which energy models the issue will be analyzed and how this can support the decision-making process. The collection of specific data for the case is organized.
Analysis results and validation of participatory decision-making process – TU Delft, TNO, Alliander, DNVGL, Gasunie, Kalavasta, Quintel, Quomare, Stedin, Leiden University
The case is analyzed with the models separately and with the developed multi-model framework. In a workshop, the results of the analyzes are discussed with modellers and case participants. Improvements are determined for the multi-model framework and its use in the decision-making process.
This is repeated several times, creating an iterative process. In a final workshop, the added value of the multi-model framework and its use in the participatory decision-making process is determined.